Luck be a Lady to Levi?

levi leipheimer will most likely win the amgen tour of california today. it's been very exciting, however, watching the race unfold, even though i knew the likely outcome. it brings me to contemplate luck, and all of its effects on our lives. some might argue that the winner of the race was pre-determined before the riders took to the time trial course in palo alto last sunday. i think that "pre-determined" is a lousy label, and i'd opt for something closer to "highly likely". call me a business school student. in class, we do a lot of firm valuation. in the process we learn that, more or less, there are no free lunches. markets are efficient for the most part...very few folks can make a sustained killing in business by operating outside its rules.
cancellara, levi, millar, etc...similar to companies, those guys have known capabilities within the parameters of our sport that would ensure them a shot at the title. though i have a ton of faith in riders from other teams, i would be foolish to bank on them for the overall g.c. the guys at the top have proven track records for success and the ability to operate under pressure. though almost all the other riders have shown the ability to do so, none have with as much consistency as the top 5. and so, like the market, i pick my winners based on a balance of historical data and optimism. we'll see how it shakes out.
but luck (bad or good) can come into play. just like it did last week for my classmate max. pretty exciting stuff! thus, never discount a shift in the tide of fortune...always be ready to make the most of it! and, as professor bodily said in closing after max got lucky: “if life is favorable to us, shall we not then offer random acts of kindness to others?”
and with that, i drag myself to the medicine cabinet for some advil to ease my flu symptoms. maybe i'll get lucky and feel better, because this sucks.